Innistrad Financial Guide - Part 1: White and Blue

Innistrad Financial Guide - Part 1: White and Blue

Welcome to another financial guide article.  If you've never read one of my financial articles, never fear!  I will show you how I break it down right before I start the financial section.  But first, a foreword.

Innistrad has a lot to live up to.  For a while, Magic has been showing a pattern with its block cycle.  The easiest example is our shortly rotating standard:  Zendikar and Scars.  Zendikar is a straight forward awesome block with no real craziness theme going on.  Sure, we had landfall and such, but the goal of the block was to just make awesome cards.  Scars block was extremely different.  It had the goal to shake up the standard enviroment with artifact and infect cards.  Let's go back a little.  Lorwyn was a "Zendikar" block.  Standard stuff, color pie in tact, had a tribal subtheme etc.  After that came Alara, which was very heavily themed in the multicolor theme.  So, if we take that data, we can see that we have a pattern of:

1) Standard block (Lorwyn)
2) Extreme block (Alara)
3) Standard block (Zendikar)
4) Extreme block (Scars)
5) Standard block? (Innistrad)

By the cards spoiled, we do indeed have a standard block shaping up.  Small tribal subtheme, color pie is intact, a few multicolor cards but nothing to shake up the enviroment.  As we can see from Lorywn and Zendikar, Innistrad has a lot to live up to.

But does it hit the mark?

That's hard to answer at this point.  I havent even went to the prerelease, much less worked on constructed decks with Innistrad.  However, I can tell you just by looking at it that this set is solid.  We are taking a step down in power (a feat first set in motion by Scars of Mirrodin) so games will be slower.  We no longer have bolt.  3 toughness is good again.  So some cards that we may be overlooking might actually be a lot better than we give them credit for at first glance.  But this is shaping up to be a great standard format.

Today I'll be going over the white and blue cards of the set and see what value we can expect these cards to hit.

I'm going to be using the same format as I did for the M12 Financial guide, so heres a template of how this will look:

EXAMPLE

Angelic Destiny

Current Price - $X (this is the price this card is currently going for on starcitygames.com)

Short Term Price - $X(this is the price I predict the card will go for within a month or so)

Long Term Price - $X (this is the price I predict the card will go for when the price settles)

Notes: (This is where I will discuss my prediction in detail)

Bottom Line: (This is the thesis of my opinion.)

That's it!  Enjoy the predictions!

MYTHICS

Angelic Overseer

Current Price - $5.99

Short Term Price - $5

Long Term Price - $4-5 

Notes: This card looks like a Baneslayer comparison at first sight, but upon a second glance, it appears to be much different.  The loss of lifelink and first strike make it a lot more iffy to attack.  Conditional Hexproof and Indestructible is nice, but we cant count on it.  At face value, a 5/3 flying for 5 mana is decent. 
Bottom Line: The casual player in me says this card is ground breaking, but the tournament player in me says to pass it up.

Mikaeus, the Lunarch

Current Price - $7.99

Short Term Price - $3-5

Long Term Price - $2-4

Notes: When they announced they were going to have an Innistrad card in the new From the Vault series, I was psyched.  All of the From the Vaults have been awesome, and with Sword of Body and Mind being the the latest one; From the Vault: Relics, I knew it was going to be a solid card.  Not only was I wrong about the card, the whole From the Vault: Legends was a huge dissappointment. 

Bottom Line: I can see it in Commander, and of course limited.  Highly doubt this will see standard play.

Mirror-Mad Phantasm

Current Price - $4.99

Short Term Price - $4-5

Long Term Price - $3-5

Notes: So, you can thank the almighty Richard Garfield for this one.  Now, this is a really fun card.  We dont see effects like this too often.  And in a graveyard block it's actually a cool idea to build around.  However, this seems way too clumsy for anything but kitchen table play.

Bottom Line: Just because Richard Garfield designs it, it doesn't mean it's pure gold.

Skaab Ruinator

Current Price - $22.29

Short Term Price - $20

Long Term Price - $10-20

Notes: Wow, a 5/6 flying for 3 mana?  What is this an allusion to?  If you said Abyssal Persecutor, you win a cookie!  Except I actually think Persecutor is better.  Sure, this is 1 mana cheaper, but how often are you gonna play this on turn 3?  Seriously.  I'm pretty sure this will tank in value but should maintain solid bottom line value as Persecutor once did.

Bottom Line: Trade these off at first, then pick them up once they lower in value.

RARES

Champion of the Parish

Current Price - $2.50

Short Term Price - $2-3

Long Term Price - $1-3

Notes: Pretty much the only thing keeping humans tribal.  Hada Freeblade.  Go go.  Fail rare.

Bottom Line: People will still look for these.  They should'nt change too much in price.

Cackling Counterpart

Current Price - $3

Short Term Price - $2

Long Term Price - $2

Notes: Don't we have enough clone effects?  Compare this to the likes of Spitting Image and Rite of Replication.  The edge on this card is the cheap cost and the flashback ability, which might give it some value.

Bottom Line: Hang on to a playset of this and see where they go.  Pick up from people who believe it to be a bulk rare.

Elite Inquisitor

Current Price - $3.49

Short Term Price - $3-4

Long Term Price - $3-6

Notes: At least as powerful as Kazandu Blademaster.  Sometimes worse, sometimes better.  He's a human, so he's pretty much an autoinclude there.  You obviously cannot count on the protection clause but its nice when it works.

Bottom Line: Solid Rare that has little potential to rise but should maintain its value as it is a good card.

Geist-Honored Monk

Current Price - $1.99

Short Term Price - $1-2

Long Term Price - $1-3

Notes: Everyone's writing this card off as a bulk rare but I think it has some potential.  Sure, 5 mana is a lot but so was Siege-Gang Commander.  The mix of ablities like the tokens having evasion and it having vigilance and the fact that it can grow in size means your foe will probably be taking some damage from this guy.  Also great in Sword decks.

Bottom Line: Underated but will not be groundbreaking.  Solid mid-range card that will be niche choice in blade decks.  Will be better with more spirit support cards in Dark Ascension.

Laboratory Maniac

Current Price - $2.49

Short Term Price - $1-2

Long Term Price - $1

Notes: Instant win cards usually are never good.  But, they always maintain some kind of value.  I have no idea how to safely break this card.  I mean if I mill myself what happens if they shock this guy in response?  That's no good.

Bottom Line: Trade these off to that kid at your shop that just has to build a deck around instant win cards.  Then laugh at him.

Ludevic's Test Subject
Current Price - $1.49

Short Term Price - $1-3

Long Term Price - $2-5

Notes: Promo card.  Another one that others are calling a bulk mythic.  This has potential.  I'd say his power level is close to that of Kargan Dragonlord's.  It's fairly easy to transform, just takes time and a 0/3 for 2 isnt a horrible defender early game.  When it turns into a 13/13 trample it will make short work of your opponent.

Bottom Line: Underrated but not sure where it fits in the meta.  Will play a part in some deck.

Mentor of the Meek

Current Price - $4.99

Short Term Price - $3-6

Long Term Price - $2-5

Notes: Eh.  Very hyped and maybe rightfully so.  I cant put my finger on it but something tells me its not as good as people say.  I do understand it's bonkers with Elspeth and other token generators but I also understand its a shockable 2/2 for 3.

Bottom Line: Very awesome if you can pull it off.  Dies way to easy and costs 1 mana too much.

Mindshrieker

Current Price - $3.99

Short Term Price - $1-3

Long Term Price - $1-2

Notes: Overhyped and ineffective.  1/1 flying for 2 is bad on the curve and doesnt fit into blue strategies.  Activated Ability costs too much and is a hit or miss.  Risky and not worth the gamble.  Also dies in easily in response.

Bottom Line: Trade these away before they plummet.

Nevermore

Current Price - $1.99

Short Term Price - $1-3

Long Term Price - $2-4

Notes: Solid mono-white hoser.  Meddling mage's biggest weakness is that it dies.  This is much harder to remove.  It also costs quite a bit.  Will be an important card to battle any up and coming combo decks.

Bottom Line: Should maintain value.  Big weapon against combo.  Too weak for main deck play.

Snapcaster Mage

Current Price - $29.99

Short Term Price - $20-25

Long Term Price - $15-25

Notes: 30 bucks?  For a rare?  Since mythics came out, its far easier to pull rares.  20 bucks is the unoffical ceiling for any normal standard rare.  Barring a few exceptions (Stoneforge Mystic for 2 weeks) this is the case.  Add to the fact that this set is going to be opened.  A LOT.  More copies = less value.  Using this, we should be able to deduce that this will surely drop. 

HOWEVER, this card is very potent.  Obviously it's power scales with what cards it can be used with.  Generally, the older the format is, the better this card is.  Paying three mana at the end of your foe's turn to flash this in AND flashback brainstorm is insanity.  But it is potent in standard as well.  Doing the same with a ponder or gixitan probe is good advantage as well.  Hell, even getting a shock or a doom blade works too!  But don't be disappointed when it drops to 15 bucks after a month or two.  It's not because it's not a good card, it's because 30 bucks is too high for a normal rare and when a set like this one gets so many packs open its hard to gouge the price on any of the cards.

Bottom Line: Will dip in value.  Will be a huge player in ALL formats.  Trade these early and pick up later on.

Stony Silence

Current Price - $1.99

Short Term Price - $2

Long Term Price - $2-3

Notes: Equipment Hoser.  Nice way to deal with sword decks. Kind of hard to deal with.  Not powerful enough to be a must have, but a solid way to deal with sword decks.

Bottom Line: Will have some value.  Shouldnt change in value much, should always have a purpose.

BULK RARES

Back from the Brink - yeah. not gonna pay 6 mana for that.
Dearly Departed - Nice flavor tho
Divine Reckoning - I'd love to flash this back. Like if I could get it in my graveyard somehow. I'm not willing to risk card advantage for this kind of effect tho.
Rooftop Storm - If we could cheat this into play it would be boss.
Sturmgeist - Too much mana.
Undead Alchemist - Interesting card design. But a horrid card.

UNCOMMONS

Fiend Hunter - $1 - Human, and has built in Journey to Nowhere. Should find a home.
Intangible Virtue - $0.50 - Awesome in token decks. Gotta wait and see if we get more token support.
Dissipate - $1 - Cancel. Except better. Bonus: They reprinted it in a graveyard themed block!
Midnight Haunting - 25 cents - Join the ranks. Except for spirits. Will jump up if spirits get support.
Purify the Grave 50 cents - Need a way to deal with stuff in graveyards? If you play white, this is one of the best ways to do so.
Slayer of the Wicked 25 cents - Solid hoser card if you are playing humans.
Spectral Rider - 50 cents - Sword wielder. Enough said.
Invisible Stalker - $1 - Even better Sword wielder.

COMMONS

Armored Skaab - seems viable.
Bonds of Faith - Better than Pacifism. Not sure if that makes it playable, but its a start.
Forbidden Alchemy - Wow. Amazing card. Great even if it didnt have flashback or being an instant. Instant speed really pushes the power on this.
Frightful Delusion - Might be Magicial Christmas land, but this seems like a slap in the face if you can pull it off.
Lost in the Mist - 5 mana is steep, but it gains you tempo.
Stitched Drake - Easy to meet its requirements, and 3/4 flyer for 3 is tough. Being a Zombie is a plus.
Think Twice - seems like a good cycler. Awesome that its instant. Got play before,should do the same this time around.
Village Bell-Ringer - Deciever Exarch again?  In white?  So Splinter Twins getting reprinted in the next set?  (God I hope not)


Thanks for checking this out.