Days: How I see it: July 2011

Foreword:
First, I'd like to admit something. I have felt and still feel to some degree that M12 is a weak set. M11 was a strong set especially for those looking to make some money as prime time was hitting 60 bucks at the time, baneslayer was still strong at 35 bucks, grave was 30 bucks, fauna shaman was rocking 10 bucks and the battlelands still had value too. M12 gives us so many weak mythics its not funny. Yes, it is another chance to crack some titans, but titans will have much less value this time around. The only mythics that might have some value will be the new planeswalkers, and its going to be so hard to pin a value on them right now. They seem sorta bad at the moment but they might be plants for the innastrad block. But its hard to value a card on ifs and buts. So what, we might miss calling the next Splinter Twin. That card went up over 1000% overnight whenever people put 2 and 2 together about the deciever exarch combo. I am much more convinced that M12 is a better set now that I know we are getting new planeswalkers, but I still think this is a set I wouldnt go crazy over. Buy a box, trade the stuff you dont want for stuff you are looking for, and wait for everything to go down. There will be a lot of things going up and down a month after M12 hits, and also after rotation. Thats about as far as I would want to predict. That's about it.

Enjoy the guide.

MYTHICS

Angelic Destiny

Current Price - $7.50 (this is the price this card is currently going for on starcitygames.com)

Short Term Price - $5-7(this is the price I predict the card will go for within a month or so)

Long Term Price - $3-5 (this is the price I predict the card will go for when the price settles)

Notes: I think this card usually will be better than Armored Ascension. I would love to throw this on a batterskull germ token. But seriously, enchantments usually suck, and even though we are getting some enchantment support (Auramancer, etc.) its usually not enough. One thing to note is that if someone unsummons the creature this enchantment is on then Angelic Destiny will go to the graveyard. So there are loopholes. I think this card would have been a great 1 to 2 buck rare instead of a 3 to 4 buck mythic.

Bloodlord of Vaasgoth

Current Price - $7.99

Short Term Price - $4-6

Long Term Price - $2.50-5

Notes: This card is a trap. Unless we get some vampires that have something that makes getting those +1/+1 counters really worthwhile (such as double strike?) then this guy is really pointless. I mean, what was so damn OP about Vampire Nocturnus? And seeing how Cemetery Reaper is seeing a reprint my guess is support for vamps is gone and zombies are making a comeback in Innastrad. (Note: This is the prerelease event promo)

Chandra, the Firebrand

Current Price - $29.99

Short Term Price - $20-25

Long Term Price - $15-$35

Notes: Im not comfortable pinning a price on her yet. She is my least favorite of the 3 new walkers, but she does have some upsides to her. First, shes only 4 mana. History proves 4 mana is where you want to be if you are going to be a powerful walker. Also, note that she is easy to splash. She is the first walker ever to do this. She is my call for the gamble of the set, you might strike gold, but you might get burned as well.

Furyborn Hellkite

Current Price - $3.99

Short Term Price - $2.99

Long Term Price - $1.99

Notes: Everyone that knows me also knows I have a very strong opinion about this card. It's horrible. I would never pay 7 mana for a 12/12 flyer. Why would I pay it for a 6/6 flyer that sometimes is a 12/12 instead? This card is a huge trap and your money can be spent elsewhere. The only possible way this will see the light of day is if something Dragonish comes out that makes this guy cost less and do way more. Trade em for stuff before they drop.

Garruk, Primal Hunter

Current Price - $29.99

Short Term Price - $20-25

Long Term Price - $30-35

Notes: Maybe its just me, but I think Garruk is insane this time around. People are really upset he loses his ability to ramp. I agree with you, but think about it this way: M12 has a ton of ramp! We have Birds, Llanowar Elves, Rampant Growth, Cultivate, Wayfarers Bauble, Solemn Simulacrum and tons more! Ok people, have you looked at his +1? WTF!?!?! That is insane. A 3/3 token PLUS Garruk GAINS Loyalty? And I know his -3 kind of is rough since his starting loyalty is low. But Harmonize got a ton of play and this is like a Harmonize "Charm" since you have different options. I'm not huge on his ultimate, but I have no doubt that it will decimate your foe very quickly. I might be sticking my neck out a little too much for this guy but I did for Phyrexian Obliterator as well, and he is shaping up to be a major player now with Jace 2.0 out of the picture. I would recommend you to trade your Chandras straight up for Garruk asap.

Gideon Jura

Current Price - $19.99

Short Term Price - $20

Long Term Price - $15-25

Notes: It's no secret, we all know Gideon is an absolute powerhouse. The problem is that he went from a $60 goes into everything white (Fun Fact: When Gideon peaked at $60 bucks Jace 2.0 was $50.) into a niche $20 card. He even dropped to $10 for a while since no one was using him. With traditional U/W control on the rise he might see some play but even there he has to compete with Venser and Elspeth. He's one mana too pricey to top the curve for white weenie decks. But it's undenialable, he is a fanastic card and theres a reason they replaced Ajani with him in the core set: He's just plain good. As far as his future, its really hard to predict where he might appear, but if history repeats he will see some play.

Sorin Markov

Current Price - $9.99

Short Term Price - $7-9

Long Term Price - $4-5

Notes: I've been trying to force a copy of Sorin into my mono black control deck for a while now. It just doesnt fit. I used to use him in my Grixis Control and it would usually be the first of three nasty spells I would cast (the other two being Cruel Ultimatium and Nicol Bolas, Planeswalker.) He was the bait card, and I loved when people wasted counter magic on him. If he resolved, I had two choices: Gain some life because I was too low, or cut my foe to 10 then follow it up with Cruel (and then 9 out of 10 times they would concede at this point.) Since then, something happened. I'd like to call this phenonemon Grave Titan. It has so much more value to it. I think the reason Sorin doesnt fit into mono black control is because it's more aggressive than standard control decks. Often times Im playing a turn 3 Obliterator, turn 4 Liliana, and turn 5 Grave Titan. Theres just no room for Sorin in that curve. Since vamps stopped playing Nocturnus and Bloodwitch, the curve is way too tight to include Sorin there. So the big questions are "Will Sorin see a new home post rotation" and the more important one "So how bad ass is the new Liliana going to be?" Either way, it doesnt loook very good for Sorin, but I dont think we can rule him out completely. If you could ramp up to him and try a different Mono black Strat, just maybe there will be use for him yet...

Titans

Current Prices/Short Term/Long Term

Sun Titan - $3.99/$3-4/$3-4

Primeval titan - $19.99/$10-15/10-20

Inferno titan - $7.99/$7-12/$5-10

Grave Titan - $9.99/$10-15/$10-20

Frost Titan - $4.99/$5-10/$5-10

Notes: It's hard to say how impactive the titans will be. Not a lot of decks are using them. But I'll take a few shots in the dark. Sun Titan has been waiting for a plant, and when it gets it I think he will prove invaluable. He needs more than Sea Gate and Wall of Omens to break him. Primeval titan will be the worst titan if we dont get another broken land like valakut for him. Inferno remains a huge beater and will see even more play if a token deck arises. He also keeps Elspeth in check, who I expect to see more play in the near future. Grave Titan will be in Mono-Black decks everywhere and may very well be the strongest titan. Frosty is always good in ramp and control but he doesnt have a home yet. I suspect Innastrad will fix that issue however.

Jace, Memory Adept

Current Price - $39.99

Short Term - $30

Long Term - $20-$45+

Notes: I have already talked about this in person with you guys and on two blogs already. So I'll just cut to the chase. This is the chase card of the set. He's gonna see instant play in mill. He is an important plant for the graveyard themed block Innastrad. He can win games on his own very easy, provides card advantage, and seems overall to be a great mix between Beleren and Mind Sculptor. Costing 5 is questionable, but there is a lot of colorless ramp after M12 hits including Wayfarers Bauble, Solemn Simulacrum, Sphere of the Suns, Monolith, and more. He will drop in price shortly after M12 launches, and you will have a short window in which to trade for these before Innastrad hits, which he very well may jump in price.

Primordial Hydra

Current Price - $7.49

Short Term - $5

Long Term - $4-6+

Notes - Usually I dislike these kinds of cards, but I think this card has several things going for it. +1/+1 counters have never had so much support as they do now with proliferate in standard. It's very easy to pull off it's trample condition. I can just imagine this guy in a ramp deck hitting the table with 5 counters turn 4. Then turn 5 you swing for 10, and turn 6 you swing for 20, and they just die. I dont think it is deserving of mythic status but I do think it will see play at the end of the curve of a mono green beats deck. There's a lot of flexibilty with this card and I think it would be wrong to just discount it like I did with Furyborn Hellkite.

Time Reversal

Current Price - $1.49

Short Term - $1

Long Term - $1-2

Notes: WHYWHYWHY??!?!?!?!?! - It actually is more appropriate this time, what with the mill concept stuff floating around...but still, why?

　

RARES

Call to the Grave

Current Price - $1.99

Short Term -$1-2

Long Term - $1-4

Notes: Call to the Grave was always a great card, but there used to be many more zombies in standard. Still, we have no clue as to what the future blocks will bring us so its hard to dismiss the card, especially since they are reprinting...

Cemetery Reaper

Current Price - $0.99

Short Term - $1-2

Long Term - $1-3

Notes - This guy would have took off in M10 if we went the zombie route. Instead, Zendikar gave us extremely potent vamps like Gatekeeper and Nighthawk which decidedly made us go that route. That said, the vamps of M12 are the weakest ones, and the "Lord" is both expensive and ineffective. So if there will be a Mono-Black aggro deck, it will most likely be zombies. Only time and Innastrad will tell.

Chandra's Phoenix

Current Price - $2.99

Short Term - $2-4

Long Term - $2-5

Notes: This reminds me of a less powerful but more persistant Hell's Thunder. I think the 3 mana investment does pay itself off if you can revive at least once, which shouldnt be a problem in RDW. That said, I dont think it will be a 4 of, but maybe a 2 of. You can't afford to tap down all that mana each turn until later game, and we all know that the longer the game goes on, the less chance RDW has of winning. So I'd say this will see some light play in some decks, will be about as popular as Kargan Dragonlord, except its not mythic. (Note: This is the buy-a-box promo)

Day of Judgment

Current Price - $1.99

Short Term - $1.50-2.50

Long Term - $4

Notes: Where's my Wrath of God? Oh well, another year with this "board sweeper". I think sweepers are going to see a lot more maindeck play post rotation as we steer away from combo decks like Valakut and Exarch Twin and we will go into aggro, beatdown, control and maybe dredge? Either way, I do think that even though its reprinted for a 3rd time Day will shoot up in value after rotation. Yes, combo deck will still be out there but I'm sure wizards is gonna make them a lot harder to pull off this time around.

Dual-Lands(Battle lands)

Notes: This is the 3rd printing and all of the prices will drop again. Glacial Fortress will see an increase as U/W gains more popularity.

Dungrove Elder

Current Price - $2.99

Short Term - $2

Long Term - $1

This card isnt as good as people think it is. First, it can be chumped all day long. Second, hexproof is fairly easy to play around. Third, this means you have to run all Forests. He is strongly outclassed by his cousin, Thrun. I dont think its a bad card, however, I just dont see justifying a place for him with all of his restrictions.

Elvish Archdruid

Current Price - $2.49

Short Term - $2-3

Long Term - $2-3

Notes - 3rd printing so we have to expect it to drop. M12 didnt really give us many ground breaking elves (Though I do like the 1/1 hexproof for one) so its hard to tell what lies in store for elves. But elves always show up in every format so I have no doubt he will at least maintain value.

Adaptive Automaton

Current Price - $4.99

Short Term - $4-7

Long Term - $2-4

Notes - Yeah, so this guy is a lord for any class you want. Or a second lord. Now I dont see anything wrong with making a Jellyfish Tribal deck, but I just dont get the hype on this guy. Lord cards never peak that high and this is the worst lord ever. Still, it could see some play if a tribe emerges that desperately needs a lord. I know Relentless Rats needs one. And maybe Angels could use this guy. I dunno. I think it will see some play but I cannot see how its price will beat the other lords already low prices.

Gideon's Avenger

Current Price - $1.99

Short Term - $1

Long Term -$1-3

Notes: Honestly, whats the first thing you thought of when you seen this card? I thought of Sleep. Yeah, this guy could get out of hand quick. Whether its against a ton of goblins coming your way or you tap down all the chump blockers Elspeth just made, he could be handy. Also note that he is a solider, which they make into a tribal thing once in a while. Overall, I see this guy being huge in sideboards, but lackluster in main. If your opponents have no creatures, this Grizzly Bear for 3 is underwhelming. If your opponent is playing combo, you'll get low value.

Grand Abolisher

Current Price - $7.99

Short Term - $4-6

Long Term -$2-3

Notes: My vote for most overrated card in the set. Most cards that deal with this guy dont have to be played on their turn. Yeah, the best use is to fight off counterspells, but this guy doesnt protect himself at all. That said, there's little reason not to run him in your white weenie deck if you are short on 2 drops. I'd rather them kill this guy instead of my Mirran Crusader or Hero of the Bladehold. Trade these guys off at the prerelease ASAP.

Grim Lavamancer

Current Price - $5.99

Short Term - $4-6

Long Term - $4-8

Notes: Usually, if a card is used widely in legacy, its bound to be outstanding in standard. There are some obvious exemptions though, such as Mental Misstep, Hive Mind, and some others. Grim Lavamancer isnt just good enough to be an autoinclude in any deck with red in it, its also good enough to make legacy decks splash in red just for it. Now, I dont think that Grim Lavamancer will be anywhere near broken in our current standard, and since we are looking at a graveyard themed block ahead it might even dwindle in power. But that doesnt stop it from filling a very important role in red: Being a solid 1 drop. I cant think of a better card to take goblin guide's place in red standard. Perhaps the most important role it plays is being a immediate threat to any creature with 2 or less toughness. That's enough to keep some opponents from playing cards! Combine your on board Lavamancer with any burn in your hand and you can take down nearly anything without losing card advantage. In closing, while it probably is not the best time for Grim Lavamancer to reenter the magic scene, it is more than welcome and will help fill an important role in red for the next year.

Jace's Archivist

Current Price - $2.49

Short Term - $2-4

Long Term -$3-10+

Notes: A possible sleeper. First, let's see some possible combos:

- Combos with Liliana's Caress to deal tons of damage.

- Combos with Jace's Erasure

- Helps mill on its own

- Combos with Conscreated Sphinx

- More potent draws with draw spells like Jace's Ingenuity

- Helps trigger Visions of Beyond

- Helps you to discard "dredge" cards, like Vengevine, Bloodghast, and Vengeful Pharaoh

And this is just one minute of Brainstorming. Imagine what else you could do with this. The trick is to turn the ability into an advantage instead of a blind shot. Build a deck around it and see what possibilties unfold.

Lord of the Unreal

Current Price - $2.99

Short Term - $2-4

Long Term - $1-3

Notes - This lord is notable for a few things. First, he costs one less than most other lords. Second, he is not an illusion himself and therefore a second one will not net you much of a bonus. Third, he is gonna die. This guy is a lightning rod if I have ever seen one. I mean people kill Archdruids insanely fast but if they dont kill this guy then they are going to have a hard time staying in the match. That said, I think illusions are going to be about as popular, if not less popular, than knights. Knights is kind of a cool deck but nowhere near competitive. So expect to see some of these decks at your FNM, but I wouldnt invest in these unless you really want to play an illusion deck.

Monomania

Current Price - $1.49

Short Term - 50 cents

Long Term - 50 cents

Notes: Normally, I'd just put this in the Bulk Rare list and be done with it, but something must be said about this. How dare you make such a crappy discard card, Wizards? You just couldnt reprint Persecute, could you? No Mind Sludge, eh? Instead you print us this overpriced, underpowered trash? Shame. Shame on you, Wizards.

Phantasmal Image

Current Price - $2.49

Short Term - $2-4

Long Term - $2-5

Notes: The best illusion card. Notable for being able to copy Lord of the Unreal and become hexproof itself. May see play outside of illusions, and should outrank Lord of the Unreal in price in the long run.

Quicksilver Amulet

Current Price - $2.99

Short Term - $2-4

Long Term - $1-5+

Notes: Elvish Piper without the legs. Also, for any color. I think the biggest reason Elvish Piper wasnt good was because he was a creature. A creature that was easily dispatched. Now, does that mean Quicksilver Amulet is good? Well, here's a few things to mull over:

- Quicksilver Amulet can cheat some nasty creatures out, such as Eldrazis, Iona, Stormtide Leviathan and more.

- Drawing a second (or third or fourth) is useless and results in a dead draw.

- Artifacts are the some of the most easy permentants to destroy (behind creatures and planeswalkers)

- Most of the big nasty creatures are rotating out (We still have Blightsteel!)

- We never know what nasty creatures they could print next!

- Only one way currently to tutor this up (Hoarding Dragon, and he's rotating)

Overall, to make this card work, you would have to build a deck around it. Problem with that is Quicksilver Amulet is easily neturalized and if you built your deck around it then you will probably lose. Still, if the deck were to create a solid backup plan then I could see this working.

Skinshifter

Current Price - $3.99

Short Term - $4-5

Long Term - $4-8+

Notes: This card wins the best flavor award, hands down. It can hit hard but toughen up if needed, provided you have enough mana. It's a pretty cool card to get later on when you have less to cast so you can invest more mana into it if needed. As far as constructed, I can see it getting there, but I have to wonder if the constant mana drain it will have on you will be worth it. Either way my gut says to pick these guys up and thats what I plan on doing.

Solemn Simulacrum

Current Price - $4.99

Short Term - $5-7

Long term - $4-7+

Notes - What a reprint! Back in the day I loved this card but it seemed to have come at the wrong time. Now I think the time is right and this guy will help any color hit that titan a whole turn early! Combine this with Wayfarers Bauble and any deck gets turn 4 titans! I just cant see a control deck that doesnt want to run 4 of these. Bonus: Your sweepers gain you card advantage! Nothing chump blocks better than this guy. He ran for 5 bucks back in the day so I have no reason to believe that he will drop below that considering how much better he is now. What a perfect reprint.

Sorin's Vengeance

Current Price - $1

Short Term - $1-2

Long Term - $1-3

Notes: - Better than corrupt, most of the time. May be able to pull off thanks to the colorless ramps effects in M12. Notable for instant win after using Sorin's -3. Might end up as bulk, but I think it will see some fringe play for the sheer fact that its a 20 point life swing. Feels a little like Cruel Ultimatium.

Sundial of the Infinite

Current Price - $2.49

Short Term -$1.99

Long Term - $1-3

Notes: The Zur's Weirding of the set, and isnt it a funny one? The coolest thing about this is being able to counter any spell you opponent casts on your turn, but it does cost you your turn. I cant see a cool combo yet, but I can bet that it will see some play in my sideboards vs control decks.

Vengeful Pharaoh

Current Price - $1.99

Short Term - $1.49

Long Term - $2-4

Notes: Sleeper for the upcoming graveyard block. Not much to say, except it is effective in what it does. Also a great great great card to discard/sacrifice with SmallPox.

Visions of Beyond

Current Price - $7.49

Short Term - $5-7

Long Term - $3-7

Notes: The verdict is still out on this card. Obviously, if we can fill a graveyard fast then this 3 for 1 is insane! And at the very least it will cantrip, which is better than nothing. But how quick can we fill a grave? Faster than we can cast Jace's Ingenuity? I'm not so sure. Now I love the concept of this card but I just have my doubts if it will make it (at least in standard). Investing in this card is purely a risk and you are putting your money into the hopes that next block will help you pay off. And it surely is possible.

Here is a sortable M12 picture/pricing guide for the cards I have not linked, courtesy of starcitygames.com

Birds of Paradise, Goblin Chiefain - Should stay the same as they have been, slightly above bulk pricing.

Bulk Rares:

Aegis Angel

Arachnus Spinner

Archon of Justice

Doubling Chant

Druidic Satchel

Flameblast Dragon

Garruk's Horde

Mind Unbound

Rune-Scarred Demon

Rites of Flourishing

Scrambleverse

Sutured Grove

Sphinx of Uthuun

Warstorm Surge

Worldslayer

Personal Sanctuary

Pentavus

Throne of Empires

Redirect

Reverberate

Djinn of Wishes

Honor of the Pure

Manabarbs

Mesa Enchantress

Royal Assassin

　

　

Uncommons and Commons of Note (this means pick up foil copys!)

- The Mage Cycle is pretty neat, and I love the concept of Azure Mage. Jade and Crimson may see play as well.

- Buried Ruin could be good.

- Belltower Sphinx is a pretty cool creature for mill. I know red decks would have a hell of a time against it.

- Consume Spirit will be good if we get some mana generator for black

- Goblin Grenade could be an explosive finish for Gobbies

- OMG Oblivion Ring is back!

- Smallpox is gonna be fun, we just have to find a way to break it

- Swiftfoot Boots is Lightning Greaves 2.0 - get on it(going for 3 bucks for nonfoil at the moment)

- Zombie Infestation will probably be nice come fall, with the graveyard themed block.

- Stormblood Berserker = RDW new staple

- Phantasmal Bear is gonna be Goblin Guide 2.0?

- Rampant Growth is back!

- Ponder is back to replace Preordain, but you can enjoy both until then! Exarch Twin and Pyro will enjoy this. (foil copies of ponder go for 8 bucks!)